# Demand forecast for the product sales

You have to submit two to three page research report for this case. All research reports should be in essay format ( Introduction, Body and Conclusion).

The format for the research reports and presentations should be:

· A brief explanation of the case,

· Explanation of the problems to be solved,

· Analysis and application of techniques to generate sufficient information to make a recommendation,

· Recommendations and Justifications.

RESEARCH REPORT (2-3 pages). Present a summary of your analysis, key statistical results, conclusions, and recommendations, in a research report. At the very least, in your report you should:

Provide a clear and concise statement of the problem. The place to start your report is with a summary of the questions you have investigated, why they are important and who should be interested in the results.

Develop numerical and graphical summaries for the data. Provide descriptive statistics for each variable in the data set. Make comments and interpretations based on these descriptive statistics.

Use regression analysis to forecast:

1) Create a demand forecast for the PVB and Fire Valve product sales with:

a) Only Trend (Model 1) (Two forecasting equation, one for PVB and one for Fire Valve)

b) Trend and seasonal dummies (Model 2)  (Two forecasting equation, one for PVB and one for Fire Valve)

c) Trend, seasonal dummies and economic indicators ( unemployment rate, interest rate and house sales) (Model 3)  (Two forecasting equation, one for PVB and one for Fire Valve)

d) Write your estimated regression equation for each model.

e) Comment on the goodness of fit (R2) for each model.

f) Evaluate your regression results by examining signs and magnitudes of estimated coefficients, p-values. Carefully interpret the coefficients and determine the significance of each independent variable. Use the F-test to determine the overall significance of the relationship (For each model)

2) Can you think of other factors that might predict PVB and Fire Valve product sales?

Conclude and recommend. What conclusions and recommendations can you derive from your analysis? What are economic implications?  Compare your results with Wilkins’ forecast. What do you think? Do you have a recommendation for Wilkins?

APPENDICES (1-3 pages). Include any technical material you feel is appropriate (tables, charts, graphs, computer printouts, etc.) in an appendix.

Tables must be designed to fit comfortably on a page. For tables, use the ‘create table’ feature in MS-Word. Each table must have a title and be numbered consecutively with Arabic numbers.

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